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US farmers won’t see a year as profitable as 2020 for a decade | Agriculture News

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Federal aid payments accounted for more than a third of US farmers’ $121.1bn in net income last year.

U.S. farmers won’t see another year as profitable as 2020 for at least a decade, the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected Tuesday.

Farm profits soared to their highest level in seven years amid a flood of government aid related to the pandemic and the trade war, with direct federal assistance payments accounting for more than a third of U.S. farmers’ $121.1 billion in net income last year.

Despite a continuous rise in sales through 2030, the USDA forecast profits would be lower, dropping to $100.1 billion this year and then fluctuating in a range between $99.3 billion and $109.8 billion through 2030.

The USDA projections assume no change in current government policy, though the Biden administration has suggested it is considering payments to farmers to encourage climate-friendly practices. The trade bailout isn’t scheduled to continue without new action from the president or Congress, nor are the pandemic relief measures.

U.S agricultural exports are forecast to rise 12% for the federal fiscal year ended Sept. 30, driven by higher prices and larger quantities as global demand strengthens. Shipment value is projected to surpass a record set in 2014 by the following year and continue upward for the remainder of the decade.



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US debt projected to balloon to more than double GDP by 2051 | Debt News

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The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office warned that by 2051, the United States’ debt will skyrocket to 202 percent of its gross domestic product, up from 102 percent this year.

The U.S. federal debt will grow to more than double the size of the economy in three decades, increasing the risk of a fiscal crisis even though dangers appear low in the near term, the Congressional Budget Office said.

Debt will be equivalent to 202% of gross domestic product by 2051 from 102% this year, the nonpartisan arm of the legislature said Thursday in its long-term budget outlook. Its projection for 195% in 2050 was unchanged from the prior report, whose forecasts ran through that year.

Net interest payments on the debt are expected to remain relatively low for the next decade, then rise rapidly over the following 20 years, the CBO said. The agency projects 10-year Treasury yield, after inflation, at 2.6% in 2050. The nominal yield was at 1.54%, near the highest in more than a year, on Thursday.

The CBO also said that the two Social Security trust funds, for seniors and people with disabilities, will be exhausted later than the agency projected last year.

The report — which doesn’t reflect the $1.9 trillion stimulus plan currently working its way through Congress — follows the selloff in Treasuries over the past week that sent yields spiking. Investors are gaining more confidence that rates will move up, with U.S. growth and the labor market set for a stronger-than-expected uptick as vaccines roll out and states lift restrictions.

The CBO outlook’s debt projections will likely underpin already-firm opposition by Republicans to the relief plan, and could also concern some Democratic lawmakers as President Joe Biden prepares a followup multitrillion-dollar plan to build infrastructure and boost the economy in other ways.

“The risk of a fiscal crisis appears to be low in the short run despite the higher deficits and debt stemming from the pandemic,” the CBO said in the report. “Nonetheless, the much higher debt over time would raise the risk of a fiscal crisis in the years ahead.”

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday that the U.S. economy still has a long way to go before the central bank considers tightening, and underscored that the low-inflation world of the past several decades is unlikely to change.



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