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India GDP Growth Rate Descend to 3.1% in 2019-20.

Provisional Estimates of Annual National Income, 2019-20 and Quarterly Estimates (q4) of Gross Domestic Product, 2019-20

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India GDP Growth Rate Descend to 3.1% in 2019-20

The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, has released the Provisional Estimates of National Income for the financial year 2019-20, both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices. These are presented in Statements 1 to 4.

2.         Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2019-20, both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of GDP are also released. These are presented in Statements 5 to 8. Estimates including growth rates of Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2019-20 released earlier have been revised in accordance with the revision policy of National Accounts.

3.         In view of the global COVID-19 pandemic and consequent nationwide lockdown measures implemented since March, 2020; the data flow from the economic entities has been impacted. As some of these units are yet to resume operations and owing to the fact that the statutory time-lines for submitting the requisite financial returns have been extended by the Government, these Estimates are based on the available data. Consequently, the Estimates (Quarterly as well as Annual) are likely to undergo revision.

 4.        The Second Advance Estimates (SAE) of National Income for the year 2019-20 were released on 28th February, 2020. These estimates have now been revised incorporating latest estimates of Agricultural Production, Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and performance of key sectors like, Railways, Transport other than Railways, Communication, Banking, Insurance and Government Revenue Expenditure. With the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 1st July 2017 and consequent changes in the tax structure, the total Tax Revenue used for GDP compilation includes Non-GST Revenue and GST Revenue. For obtaining Taxes on Products at Constant Prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services and aggregated to get the total volume of taxes.

Early results on the performance of Corporate Sector for April-December 2019 which were used in SAE have been revised on the basis of latest available information. Besides information on indicators like Deposits & Credits, Passenger and Freight Earnings of Railways, Passenger Traffic and Cargo Handled at Airports, Cargo Handled at Major Sea Ports, Sales of Commercial Vehicles etc., available for first 9/10 months of the financial year used in the SAE have been revised with the updated data upto March, 2020.

5.        Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2019-20 is now estimated to attain a level of ₹ 145.66 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimate of GDP for the year 2018-19 of ₹ 139.81 lakh crore, released on 31st January 2020. The growth in GDP during 2019-20 is estimated at 4.2 percent as compared to 6.1 percent in 2018-19.

6.         GDP at Current Prices in the year 2019-20 is estimated to attain a level of ₹ 203.40 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimates of ₹ 189.71 lakh crore in 2018-19, showing a growth rate of 7.2 percent as compared to 11.0 percent in 2018-19.

7.         The Per Capita Income in real terms (at 2011-12 Prices) during 2019-20 is estimated to attain a level of ₹ 94,954 as compared to ₹ 92,085 in the year 2018-19, resulting in growth of 3.1 percent during 2019-20, as against 4.8 per cent in the previous year. The Per Capita Income at current prices during 2019-20 is estimated to be ₹ 134,226, showing a rise of 6.1 percent as compared to ₹ 1,26,521 during 2018-19.

8.         GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q4 of 2019-20 is estimated at ₹ 38.04 lakh crore, as against ₹ 36.90 lakh crore in Q4 of 2018-19, showing a growth of 3.1 percent.

9.         Changes in the main indicators used in the estimation are listed below:

Indicators Annual Quarterly
2018-19 2019-20 Q4 2018-19 Q4 2019-20
Production of Coal 7.4 -0.5 6.4 7
Production of Crude Oil -4.2 -5.9 -5.5 -5.7
Production of Cement 13.3 -0.8 11.7 -4.9
Consumption of Steel 7.5 1.3 9.4 -3.9
Sales of Commercial Vehicles 17.6 -28.8 3.8 -42.1
Cargo Handled at Major Sea Ports 2.9 0.9 0.1 0.1
Cargo Handled at Airports 2.5 -9 -0.9 -13.6
Passengers Handled at Airports 11.8 -1 3.9 -9.5
Railways  
    (i) Net Tonne Kilometers 6.6 -4.5 5.8 -6.7
    (ii) Passenger Kilometers 1.7 -4.3 1 -14.2
Aggregate Bank Deposits 10 7.9 67.1 -53
Aggregate Bank Credits 13.3 6.1 -1.7 -20
LIC Premium – Non-Linked 6.1 11.4 18.2 -11.6
LIC Premium – Linked -8.4 -10.5 -7.5 -19.3
CPI General Index 3.4 4.8 2.5 6.7
IIP  
    (i) Mining 2.8 1.7 2.2 4.5
    (ii) Manufacturing 3.8 -1.1 1.4 -5.7
    (iii) Electricity 5.2 0.8 1.5 1.1
    (iv) Metallic Minerals 2.4 14.3 2.2 12.9
Indicators Annual Quarterly
2018-19 2019-20 Q4 2018-19 Q4 2019-20
WPI  
    (i) Food Articles 0.4 8.4 3.9 8
    (ii) Minerals 11.4 12.5 10.5 8.7
    (iii) Manufactured Products 3.7 0.3 2.4 0.5
    (iv) All Commodities 4.3 1.7 2.9 2.3

10.       Estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income along with GVA at Basic Prices by kind of economic activity, Expenditures on GDP for Provisional Estimates and the four quarters of 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-20 at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, along with percent changes and the rates of expenditure components of GDP, are given in Statements 1 to 8.

11.       The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter April-June, 2020 (Q1 of 2020-21) will be on 31.08.2020.

TATEMENT 1: Provisional Estimates of National Income and Expenditures on GDP, 2019-20 (at 2011- 12 Prices)            
(` crore)            
           
S. No. Item 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Percentage Change Over Previous Year  
(2nd RE) (1st RE) (PE)  
          2018-19 2019-20
  Domestic Product          
1 GVA at Basic Prices 1,20,74,413 1,28,03,128 1,33,01,120 6 3.9
2 Net Taxes on Products 11,00,747 11,78,298 12,64,831 7 7.3
3 GDP (1+2) 1,31,75,160 1,39,81,426 1,45,65,951 6.1 4.2
4 NDP 1,16,86,409 1,23,72,051 1,28,93,977 5.9 4.2
  Final Expenditures          
5 PFCE 73,79,819 79,08,057 83,25,907 7.2 5.3
6 GFCE 13,43,222 14,78,565 16,52,367 10.1 11.8
7 GFCF 40,61,195 44,60,967 43,34,091 9.8 -2.8
8 CIS 2,15,795 2,64,415 2,69,489 22.5 1.9
9 Valuables 1,92,661 1,69,734 1,92,629 -11.9 13.5
10 Exports of Goods and Services 26,01,777 29,22,543 28,17,660 12.3 -3.6
11 Imports of Goods and Services 30,78,132 33,42,777 31,15,388 8.6 -6.8
12 Discrepancies 4,58,823 1,19,923 89,196    
13 GDP 1,31,75,160 1,39,81,426 1,45,65,951 6.1 4.2
  Rates to GDP          
14 PFCE 56 56.6 57.2    
15 GFCE 10.2 10.6 11.3    
16 GFCF 30.8 31.9 29.8    
17 CIS 1.6 1.9 1.9    
18 Valuables 1.5 1.2 1.3    
19 Exports of Goods and Services 19.7 20.9 19.3    
20 Imports of Goods and Services 23.4 23.9 21.4    
21 Discrepancies 3.5 0.9 0.6    
22 GDP 100 100 100    
  National Product          
23 GNI 1,30,29,307 1,38,29,068 1,44,05,339 6.1 4.2
24 NNI 1,15,40,556 1,22,19,693 1,27,33,366 5.9 4.2
                  Per Capita Income, Product and Final Consumption            
25 Population* (in million) 1314 1327 1341 1 1.1
26 Per Capita GDP (₹) 1,00,268 1,05,361 1,08,620 5.1 3.1
27 Per Capita GNI (₹) 99,158 1,04,213 1,07,422 5.1 3.1
28 Per Capita NNI (₹) 87,828 92,085 94,954 4.8 3.1
29 Per Capita PFCE (₹) 56,163 59,594 62,087 6.1

4.2

*Relates to mid-financial year

RE: Revised Estimates

PE: Provisional Estimates

STATEMENT 2: Provisional Estimates of National Income and Expenditures on GDP, 2019-20 (at Current Prices)            
(` crore)            
S. No. Item 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Percentage Change Over Previous Year  
(2nd RE) (1st RE) (PE)
          2018-19 2019-20
  Domestic Product          
1 GVA at Basic Prices 1,55,13,122 1,71,39,962 1,83,43,237 10.5 7
2 Net taxes on products 15,85,182 18,31,275 19,96,612 15.5 9
3 GDP (1+2) 1,70,98,304 1,89,71,237 2,03,39,849 11 7.2
4 NDP 1,53,34,357 1,69,91,613 1,82,21,249 10.8 7.2
  Final Expenditures          
5 PFCE 1,00,90,759 1,12,54,014 1,22,62,064 11.5 9
6 GFCE 18,38,117 21,04,235 24,46,579 14.5 16.3
7 GFCF 47,99,139 54,93,320 54,72,006 14.5 -0.4
8 CIS 2,51,062 3,20,076 3,38,357 27.5 5.7
9 Valuables 2,19,322 2,00,184 2,24,006 -8.7 11.9
10 Exports of Goods and Services 32,11,521 37,66,294 37,45,473 17.3 -0.6
11 Imports of Goods and Services 37,51,389 44,68,166 42,98,950 19.1 -3.8
12 Discrepancies 4,39,775 3,01,280 1,50,314    
13 GDP 1,70,98,304 1,89,71,237 2,03,39,849 11 7.2
  Rates to GDP          
14 PFCE 59 59.3 60.3    
15 GFCE 10.8 11.1 12    
16 GFCF 28.1 29 26.9    
17 CIS 1.5 1.7 1.7    
18 Valuables 1.3 1.1 1.1    
19 Exports of Goods and Services 18.8 19.9 18.4    
20 Imports of Goods and Services 21.9 23.6 21.1    
21 Discrepancies 2.6 1.6 0.7    
22 GDP 100 100 100    
  National Product          
23 GNI 1,69,13,491 1,87,68,912 2,01,18,353 11 7.2
24 NNI 1,51,49,545 1,67,89,288 1,79,99,754 10.8 7.2
25 GNDI 1,73,19,231 1,92,62,652 2,06,30,319 11.2 7.1
26 NNDI 1,55,55,285 1,72,83,028 1,85,11,719 11.1 7.1
Per Capita Income, Product and Final Consumption            
27 Per Capita GDP (₹) 1,30,124 1,42,963 1,51,677 9.9 6.1
28 Per Capita GNI (₹) 1,28,718 1,41,439 1,50,025 9.9 6.1
29 Per Capita NNI (₹) 1,15,293 1,26,521 1,34,226 9.7 6.1
30 Per Capita GNDI (₹) 1,31,805 1,45,159 1,53,843 10.1 6
31 Per Capita PFCE (₹) 76,794 84,808 91,440 10.4 7.8
             
Note: Estimates of Disposable Income are compiled only at current prices.    
STATEMENT 3: Provisional Estimates of GVA at Basic Price by Economic Activity (at 2011-12 prices)                 
(` crore)          
         
Industry 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Percentage Change Over Previous Year  
(2nd RE) (1st RE) (PE)  
        2018-19 2019-20
1. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 18,28,329 18,72,339 19,48,110 2.4 4
2. Mining & Quarrying 3,66,496 3,45,069 3,55,680 -5.8 3.1
3. Manufacturing 21,90,791 23,16,643 23,17,280 5.7 0.03
4. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & other Utility Services 2,74,104 2,96,560 3,08,832 8.2 4.1
5. Construction 9,62,009 10,20,314 10,33,276 6.1 1.3
6. Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting 23,09,860 24,88,049 25,77,945 7.7 3.6
7.  Financial,  Real Estate  &  Professional  Services 26,09,016 27,86,855 29,15,680 6.8 4.6
8.  Public Administration, Defence  and Other Services 15,33,809 16,77,298 18,44,316 9.4 10
 GVA  at  Basic Prices 1,20,74,413 1,28,03,128 1,33,01,120 6

3.9

STATEMENT 4: Provisional Estimates of GVA at Basic Price by Economic Activity (at Current Prices)          
(` crore)          
         
Industry 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Percentage Change Over Previous Year  
(2nd RE) (1st RE) (PE)  
        2018-19 2019-20
1. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 27,96,908 29,22,846 32,57,443 4.5 11.4
2. Mining & Quarrying 3,57,788 3,89,322 3,93,102 8.8 1
3. Manufacturing 25,46,608 27,66,767 27,75,587 8.6 0.3
4. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & other Utility Services 4,25,101 4,56,413 4,86,516 7.4 6.6
5. Construction 11,97,931 13,44,279 13,84,895 12.2 3
6. Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting 28,12,706 31,42,620 33,16,653 11.7 5.5
7.  Financial,  Real Estate  &  Professional  Services 32,06,559 36,22,130 38,42,524 13 6.1
8.  Public Administration, Defence  and Other Services 21,69,522 24,95,584 28,86,517 15 15.7
 GVA  at  Basic Prices 1,55,13,122 1,71,39,962 1,83,43,237 10.5 7

STATEMENT 5: Quarterly Estimates of GVA at Basic Prices for 2019-20 (at 2011-12 prices)

                                       
(` crore)                                        
Industry 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Percentage Change Over Previous Year                                
        2018-19 2019-20                              
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4  
1. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 4,11,366 3,46,486 5,77,270 4,93,208 4,27,177 3,55,283 5,88,679 5,01,199 4,39,843 3,67,758 6,09,883 5,30,626 3.8 2.5 2 1.6 3 3.5 3.6 5.9
2. Mining & Quarrying 95,649 75,002 86,635 1,09,209 88,634 69,723 82,797 1,03,915 92,807 68,978 84,610 1,09,285 -7.3 -7 -4.4 -4.8 4.7 -1.1 2.2 5.2
3. Manufacturing 5,07,569 5,48,729 5,32,956 6,01,537 5,61,875 5,79,649 5,60,719 6,14,400 5,78,936 5,76,112 5,56,494 6,05,738 10.7 5.6 5.2 2.1 3 -0.6 -0.8 -1.4
4. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & other Utility Services 69,504 69,698 66,968 67,935 74,998 76,567 73,338 71,655 81,628 79,525 72,817 74,863 7.9 9.9 9.5 5.5 8.8 3.9 -0.7 4.5
5. Construction 2,34,844 2,26,098 2,43,408 2,57,660 2,49,913 2,37,907 2,59,449 2,73,046 2,62,828 2,44,092 2,59,357 2,67,000 6.4 5.2 6.6 6 5.2 2.6 -0.04 -2.2
6. Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting 5,61,803 5,44,822 5,65,597 6,37,636 6,09,330 5,87,337 6,09,595 6,81,786 6,30,860 6,11,609 6,35,724 6,99,751 8.5 7.8 7.8 6.9 3.5 4.1 4.3 2.6
7.  Financial, Real Estate  &  Professional  Services 7,15,262 7,66,707 5,62,903 5,64,147 7,57,850 8,16,260 5,99,505 6,13,241 8,03,322 8,64,974 6,19,229 6,28,155 6 6.5 6.5 8.7 6 6 3.3 2.4
8.  Public Administration, Defence and Other Services 3,56,199 3,85,050 4,00,441 3,92,120 3,87,589 4,19,300 4,32,842 4,37,564 4,17,483 4,65,096 4,80,107 4,81,630 8.8 8.9 8.1 11.6 7.7 10.9 10.9 10.1
GVA  at  Basic Prices 29,52,197 29,62,592 30,36,177 31,23,451 31,57,366 31,42,027 32,06,925 32,96,807 33,07,707 32,78,144 33,18,220 33,97,049 6.9 6.1 5.6 5.6 4.8 4.3 3.5 3
                                         
STATEMENT 6:  Quarterly Estimates of GVA at Basic Prices for 2019-20 (at Current Prices)                                        
(` crore)                                        
Industry 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Percentage Change Over Previous Year                                
        2018-19 2019-20                              
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4  
1. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 6,14,682 5,44,703 9,03,485 7,34,038 6,55,799 5,60,416 9,24,273 7,82,358 7,12,222 6,08,227 10,53,034 8,83,959 6.7 2.9 2.3 6.6 8.6 8.5 13.9 13
2. Mining & Quarrying 89,447 69,310 86,182 1,12,849 98,202 80,476 97,355 1,13,290 1,04,945 75,826 92,789 1,19,543 9.8 16.1 13 0.4 6.9 -5.8 -4.7 5.5
3. Manufacturing 5,83,784 6,33,546 6,20,420 7,08,858 6,64,844 6,92,530 6,73,890 7,35,502 6,94,993 6,87,906 6,64,294 7,28,394 13.9 9.3 8.6 3.8 4.5 -0.7 -1.4 -1
4. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & other Utility Services 1,06,824 1,07,304 1,03,950 1,07,023 1,13,836 1,18,456 1,13,804 1,10,316 1,24,751 1,22,547 1,15,188 1,24,030 6.6 10.4 9.5 3.1 9.6 3.5 1.2 12.4
5. Construction 2,87,451 2,80,664 3,05,759 3,24,057 3,24,955 3,14,756 3,45,528 3,59,041 3,50,920 3,25,815 3,49,232 3,58,928 13 12.1 13 10.8 8 3.5 1.1 -0.03
6. Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting 6,72,181 6,61,102 6,94,315 7,85,108 7,58,987 7,44,890 7,78,223 8,60,520 8,06,915 7,83,108 8,21,438 9,05,193 12.9 12.7 12.1 9.6 6.3 5.1 5.6 5.2
7.  Financial,  Real Estate  &  Professional  Services 8,67,582 9,44,159 6,96,275 6,98,542 9,74,229 10,68,600 7,85,893 7,93,409 10,56,866 11,38,695 8,18,382 8,28,581 12.3 13.2 12.9 13.6 8.5 6.6 4.1 4.4
8.  Public Administration, Defence  and Other Services 4,92,027 5,44,308 5,73,664 5,59,522 5,65,871 6,23,661 6,49,806 6,56,245 6,37,682 7,23,713 7,60,995 7,64,128 15 14.6 13.3 17.3 12.7 16 17.1 16.4
GVA  at  Basic Prices 37,13,978 37,85,096 39,84,050 40,29,998 41,56,723 42,03,786 43,68,772 44,10,682 44,89,292 44,65,838 46,75,351 47,12,757 11.9 11.1 9.7 9.4 8 6.2 7

6.8

 

STATEMENT 7: Quarterly Estimates of Expenditures on GDP for 2019-20 (at 2011-12 prices)

STATEMENT 8: Quarterly Estimates of Expenditures on GDP for 2019-20 (at Current Prices)

 ( crore)

Data Source : Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation

Asia

ADB, India sign $177 million loan for state road improvements in Maharashtra

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ADB India Funds for road developments

ADB, India sign $177 million loans for state road improvements in Maharashtra

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Government of India today signed a $177 million loan to upgrade 450 kilometres (km) of state highways and major district roads in the state of Maharashtra.

The signatories to the Maharashtra State Road Improvement Project were Shri Sameer Kumar Khare, Additional Secretary (Fund Bank and ADB), Department of Economic Affairs in the Ministry of Finance who signed for the Government of India, and Mr Kenichi Yokoyama, Country Director of ADB’s India Resident Mission who signed for ADB.

After signing the loan agreement, Shri Khare said that the project will improve connectivity between rural areas and urban centres in the state enabling rural communities to better access markets, employment opportunities and services. Improved mobility will expand development and livelihood opportunities outside of the state’s major urban centres to second-tier cities and towns thus reducing income disparities.

Mr Yokoyama said that the project will also strengthen road safety measures by developing a road safety audit framework that will protect vulnerable groups such as the elderly, women, and children, following the international best practice. Giving more details, Mr Yokoyama said that another feature of the project is to update the road maintenance system by encouraging 5-year performance-based maintenance obligations to contractors to sustain asset quality and service levels.

Overall the project will upgrade 2 major district roads and 11 state highways, with a combined length of 450 km, to 2-lane standard across seven districts of Maharashtra, and improve connectivity to national highways, interstate roads, seaports, airports, rail hubs, district headquarters, industrial areas, enterprise clusters and agricultural areas.

The project will also focus on training the Maharashtra Public Works Department project staff to build their capacity in climate change adaptation and disaster-resilient features in road design, road maintenance planning and road safety.

ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members—49 from the region.

Source: India Ministry of Finance – Press Release.

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