India GDP Growth Rate Descend to 3.1% in 2019-20

The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, has released the Provisional Estimates of National Income for the financial year 2019-20, both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices. These are presented in Statements 1 to 4.

2.         Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2019-20, both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of GDP are also released. These are presented in Statements 5 to 8. Estimates including growth rates of Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2019-20 released earlier have been revised in accordance with the revision policy of National Accounts.

3.         In view of the global COVID-19 pandemic and consequent nationwide lockdown measures implemented since March, 2020; the data flow from the economic entities has been impacted. As some of these units are yet to resume operations and owing to the fact that the statutory time-lines for submitting the requisite financial returns have been extended by the Government, these Estimates are based on the available data. Consequently, the Estimates (Quarterly as well as Annual) are likely to undergo revision.

 4.        The Second Advance Estimates (SAE) of National Income for the year 2019-20 were released on 28^th February, 2020. These estimates have now been revised incorporating latest estimates of Agricultural Production, Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and performance of key sectors like, Railways, Transport other than Railways, Communication, Banking, Insurance and Government Revenue Expenditure. With the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 1^st July 2017 and consequent changes in the tax structure, the total Tax Revenue used for GDP compilation includes Non-GST Revenue and GST Revenue. For obtaining Taxes on Products at Constant Prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services and aggregated to get the total volume of taxes.

Early results on the performance of Corporate Sector for April-December 2019 which were used in SAE have been revised on the basis of latest available information. Besides information on indicators like Deposits & Credits, Passenger and Freight Earnings of Railways, Passenger Traffic and Cargo Handled at Airports, Cargo Handled at Major Sea Ports, Sales of Commercial Vehicles etc., available for first 9/10 months of the financial year used in the SAE have been revised with the updated data upto March, 2020.

5.        Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2019-20 is now estimated to attain a level of ₹ 145.66 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimate of GDP for the year 2018-19 of ₹ 139.81 lakh crore, released on 31^st January 2020. The growth in GDP during 2019-20 is estimated at 4.2 percent as compared to 6.1 percent in 2018-19.

6.         GDP at Current Prices in the year 2019-20 is estimated to attain a level of ₹ 203.40 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimates of ₹ 189.71 lakh crore in 2018-19, showing a growth rate of 7.2 percent as compared to 11.0 percent in 2018-19.

7.         The Per Capita Income in real terms (at 2011-12 Prices) during 2019-20 is estimated to attain a level of ₹ 94,954 as compared to ₹ 92,085 in the year 2018-19, resulting in growth of 3.1 percent during 2019-20, as against 4.8 per cent in the previous year. The Per Capita Income at current prices during 2019-20 is estimated to be ₹ 134,226, showing a rise of 6.1 percent as compared to ₹ 1,26,521 during 2018-19.

8.         GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q4 of 2019-20 is estimated at ₹ 38.04 lakh crore, as against ₹ 36.90 lakh crore in Q4 of 2018-19, showing a growth of 3.1 percent.

9.         Changes in the main indicators used in the estimation are listed below:

Indicators	Annual		Quarterly
	2018-19	2019-20	Q4 2018-19	Q4 2019-20
Production of Coal	7.4	-0.5	6.4	7
Production of Crude Oil	-4.2	-5.9	-5.5	-5.7
Production of Cement	13.3	-0.8	11.7	-4.9
Consumption of Steel	7.5	1.3	9.4	-3.9
Sales of Commercial Vehicles	17.6	-28.8	3.8	-42.1
Cargo Handled at Major Sea Ports	2.9	0.9	0.1	0.1
Cargo Handled at Airports	2.5	-9	-0.9	-13.6
Passengers Handled at Airports	11.8	-1	3.9	-9.5
Railways
(i) Net Tonne Kilometers	6.6	-4.5	5.8	-6.7
(ii) Passenger Kilometers	1.7	-4.3	1	-14.2
Aggregate Bank Deposits	10	7.9	67.1	-53
Aggregate Bank Credits	13.3	6.1	-1.7	-20
LIC Premium – Non-Linked	6.1	11.4	18.2	-11.6
LIC Premium – Linked	-8.4	-10.5	-7.5	-19.3
CPI General Index	3.4	4.8	2.5	6.7
IIP
(i) Mining	2.8	1.7	2.2	4.5
(ii) Manufacturing	3.8	-1.1	1.4	-5.7
(iii) Electricity	5.2	0.8	1.5	1.1
(iv) Metallic Minerals	2.4	14.3	2.2	12.9
Indicators	Annual		Quarterly
	2018-19	2019-20	Q4 2018-19	Q4 2019-20
WPI
(i) Food Articles	0.4	8.4	3.9	8
(ii) Minerals	11.4	12.5	10.5	8.7
(iii) Manufactured Products	3.7	0.3	2.4	0.5
(iv) All Commodities	4.3	1.7	2.9	2.3

10.       Estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income along with GVA at Basic Prices by kind of economic activity, Expenditures on GDP for Provisional Estimates and the four quarters of 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-20 at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, along with percent changes and the rates of expenditure components of GDP, are given in Statements 1 to 8.

11.       The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter April-June, 2020 (Q1 of 2020-21) will be on 31.08.2020.

TATEMENT 1: Provisional Estimates of National Income and Expenditures on GDP, 2019-20 (at 2011- 12 Prices)
(` crore)
S. No.	Item	2017-18	2018-19	2019-20	Percentage Change Over Previous Year
		(2nd RE)	(1st RE)	(PE)
					2018-19	2019-20
	Domestic Product
1	GVA at Basic Prices	1,20,74,413	1,28,03,128	1,33,01,120	6	3.9
2	Net Taxes on Products	11,00,747	11,78,298	12,64,831	7	7.3
3	GDP (1+2)	1,31,75,160	1,39,81,426	1,45,65,951	6.1	4.2
4	NDP	1,16,86,409	1,23,72,051	1,28,93,977	5.9	4.2
	Final Expenditures
5	PFCE	73,79,819	79,08,057	83,25,907	7.2	5.3
6	GFCE	13,43,222	14,78,565	16,52,367	10.1	11.8
7	GFCF	40,61,195	44,60,967	43,34,091	9.8	-2.8
8	CIS	2,15,795	2,64,415	2,69,489	22.5	1.9
9	Valuables	1,92,661	1,69,734	1,92,629	-11.9	13.5
10	Exports of Goods and Services	26,01,777	29,22,543	28,17,660	12.3	-3.6
11	Imports of Goods and Services	30,78,132	33,42,777	31,15,388	8.6	-6.8
12	Discrepancies	4,58,823	1,19,923	89,196
13	GDP	1,31,75,160	1,39,81,426	1,45,65,951	6.1	4.2
	Rates to GDP
14	PFCE	56	56.6	57.2
15	GFCE	10.2	10.6	11.3
16	GFCF	30.8	31.9	29.8
17	CIS	1.6	1.9	1.9
18	Valuables	1.5	1.2	1.3
19	Exports of Goods and Services	19.7	20.9	19.3
20	Imports of Goods and Services	23.4	23.9	21.4
21	Discrepancies	3.5	0.9	0.6
22	GDP	100	100	100
	National Product
23	GNI	1,30,29,307	1,38,29,068	1,44,05,339	6.1	4.2
24	NNI	1,15,40,556	1,22,19,693	1,27,33,366	5.9	4.2
Per Capita Income, Product and Final Consumption
25	Population* (in million)	1314	1327	1341	1	1.1
26	Per Capita GDP (₹)	1,00,268	1,05,361	1,08,620	5.1	3.1
27	Per Capita GNI (₹)	99,158	1,04,213	1,07,422	5.1	3.1
28	Per Capita NNI (₹)	87,828	92,085	94,954	4.8	3.1
29	Per Capita PFCE (₹)	56,163	59,594	62,087	6.1	4.2

*Relates to mid-financial year

RE: Revised Estimates

PE: Provisional Estimates

STATEMENT 2: Provisional Estimates of National Income and Expenditures on GDP, 2019-20 (at Current Prices)
(` crore)
S. No.	Item	2017-18	2018-19	2019-20	Percentage Change Over Previous Year
		(2nd RE)	(1st RE)	(PE)
					2018-19	2019-20
	Domestic Product
1	GVA at Basic Prices	1,55,13,122	1,71,39,962	1,83,43,237	10.5	7
2	Net taxes on products	15,85,182	18,31,275	19,96,612	15.5	9
3	GDP (1+2)	1,70,98,304	1,89,71,237	2,03,39,849	11	7.2
4	NDP	1,53,34,357	1,69,91,613	1,82,21,249	10.8	7.2
	Final Expenditures
5	PFCE	1,00,90,759	1,12,54,014	1,22,62,064	11.5	9
6	GFCE	18,38,117	21,04,235	24,46,579	14.5	16.3
7	GFCF	47,99,139	54,93,320	54,72,006	14.5	-0.4
8	CIS	2,51,062	3,20,076	3,38,357	27.5	5.7
9	Valuables	2,19,322	2,00,184	2,24,006	-8.7	11.9
10	Exports of Goods and Services	32,11,521	37,66,294	37,45,473	17.3	-0.6
11	Imports of Goods and Services	37,51,389	44,68,166	42,98,950	19.1	-3.8
12	Discrepancies	4,39,775	3,01,280	1,50,314
13	GDP	1,70,98,304	1,89,71,237	2,03,39,849	11	7.2
	Rates to GDP
14	PFCE	59	59.3	60.3
15	GFCE	10.8	11.1	12
16	GFCF	28.1	29	26.9
17	CIS	1.5	1.7	1.7
18	Valuables	1.3	1.1	1.1
19	Exports of Goods and Services	18.8	19.9	18.4
20	Imports of Goods and Services	21.9	23.6	21.1
21	Discrepancies	2.6	1.6	0.7
22	GDP	100	100	100
	National Product
23	GNI	1,69,13,491	1,87,68,912	2,01,18,353	11	7.2
24	NNI	1,51,49,545	1,67,89,288	1,79,99,754	10.8	7.2
25	GNDI	1,73,19,231	1,92,62,652	2,06,30,319	11.2	7.1
26	NNDI	1,55,55,285	1,72,83,028	1,85,11,719	11.1	7.1
Per Capita Income, Product and Final Consumption
27	Per Capita GDP (₹)	1,30,124	1,42,963	1,51,677	9.9	6.1
28	Per Capita GNI (₹)	1,28,718	1,41,439	1,50,025	9.9	6.1
29	Per Capita NNI (₹)	1,15,293	1,26,521	1,34,226	9.7	6.1
30	Per Capita GNDI (₹)	1,31,805	1,45,159	1,53,843	10.1	6
31	Per Capita PFCE (₹)	76,794	84,808	91,440	10.4	7.8
Note: Estimates of Disposable Income are compiled only at current prices.

STATEMENT 3: Provisional Estimates of GVA at Basic Price by Economic Activity (at 2011-12 prices)
(` crore)
Industry	2017-18	2018-19	2019-20	Percentage Change Over Previous Year
	(2nd RE)	(1st RE)	(PE)
				2018-19	2019-20
1. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing	18,28,329	18,72,339	19,48,110	2.4	4
2. Mining & Quarrying	3,66,496	3,45,069	3,55,680	-5.8	3.1
3. Manufacturing	21,90,791	23,16,643	23,17,280	5.7	0.03
4. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & other Utility Services	2,74,104	2,96,560	3,08,832	8.2	4.1
5. Construction	9,62,009	10,20,314	10,33,276	6.1	1.3
6. Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting	23,09,860	24,88,049	25,77,945	7.7	3.6
7.  Financial,  Real Estate  &  Professional  Services	26,09,016	27,86,855	29,15,680	6.8	4.6
8.  Public Administration, Defence  and Other Services	15,33,809	16,77,298	18,44,316	9.4	10
GVA  at  Basic Prices	1,20,74,413	1,28,03,128	1,33,01,120	6	3.9

STATEMENT 4: Provisional Estimates of GVA at Basic Price by Economic Activity (at Current Prices)
(` crore)
Industry	2017-18	2018-19	2019-20	Percentage Change Over Previous Year
	(2nd RE)	(1st RE)	(PE)
				2018-19	2019-20
1. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing	27,96,908	29,22,846	32,57,443	4.5	11.4
2. Mining & Quarrying	3,57,788	3,89,322	3,93,102	8.8	1
3. Manufacturing	25,46,608	27,66,767	27,75,587	8.6	0.3
4. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & other Utility Services	4,25,101	4,56,413	4,86,516	7.4	6.6
5. Construction	11,97,931	13,44,279	13,84,895	12.2	3
6. Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting	28,12,706	31,42,620	33,16,653	11.7	5.5
7.  Financial,  Real Estate  &  Professional  Services	32,06,559	36,22,130	38,42,524	13	6.1
8.  Public Administration, Defence  and Other Services	21,69,522	24,95,584	28,86,517	15	15.7
GVA  at  Basic Prices	1,55,13,122	1,71,39,962	1,83,43,237	10.5	7

STATEMENT 5: Quarterly Estimates of GVA at Basic Prices for 2019-20 (at 2011-12 prices)
(` crore)
Industry	2017-18	2018-19	2019-20	Percentage Change Over Previous Year
				2018-19	2019-20
Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
1. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing	4,11,366	3,46,486	5,77,270	4,93,208	4,27,177	3,55,283	5,88,679	5,01,199	4,39,843	3,67,758	6,09,883	5,30,626	3.8	2.5	2	1.6	3	3.5	3.6	5.9
2. Mining & Quarrying	95,649	75,002	86,635	1,09,209	88,634	69,723	82,797	1,03,915	92,807	68,978	84,610	1,09,285	-7.3	-7	-4.4	-4.8	4.7	-1.1	2.2	5.2
3. Manufacturing	5,07,569	5,48,729	5,32,956	6,01,537	5,61,875	5,79,649	5,60,719	6,14,400	5,78,936	5,76,112	5,56,494	6,05,738	10.7	5.6	5.2	2.1	3	-0.6	-0.8	-1.4
4. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & other Utility Services	69,504	69,698	66,968	67,935	74,998	76,567	73,338	71,655	81,628	79,525	72,817	74,863	7.9	9.9	9.5	5.5	8.8	3.9	-0.7	4.5
5. Construction	2,34,844	2,26,098	2,43,408	2,57,660	2,49,913	2,37,907	2,59,449	2,73,046	2,62,828	2,44,092	2,59,357	2,67,000	6.4	5.2	6.6	6	5.2	2.6	-0.04	-2.2
6. Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting	5,61,803	5,44,822	5,65,597	6,37,636	6,09,330	5,87,337	6,09,595	6,81,786	6,30,860	6,11,609	6,35,724	6,99,751	8.5	7.8	7.8	6.9	3.5	4.1	4.3	2.6
7.  Financial, Real Estate  &  Professional  Services	7,15,262	7,66,707	5,62,903	5,64,147	7,57,850	8,16,260	5,99,505	6,13,241	8,03,322	8,64,974	6,19,229	6,28,155	6	6.5	6.5	8.7	6	6	3.3	2.4
8.  Public Administration, Defence and Other Services	3,56,199	3,85,050	4,00,441	3,92,120	3,87,589	4,19,300	4,32,842	4,37,564	4,17,483	4,65,096	4,80,107	4,81,630	8.8	8.9	8.1	11.6	7.7	10.9	10.9	10.1
GVA  at  Basic Prices	29,52,197	29,62,592	30,36,177	31,23,451	31,57,366	31,42,027	32,06,925	32,96,807	33,07,707	32,78,144	33,18,220	33,97,049	6.9	6.1	5.6	5.6	4.8	4.3	3.5	3
STATEMENT 6:  Quarterly Estimates of GVA at Basic Prices for 2019-20 (at Current Prices)
(` crore)
Industry	2017-18	2018-19	2019-20	Percentage Change Over Previous Year
				2018-19	2019-20
Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
1. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing	6,14,682	5,44,703	9,03,485	7,34,038	6,55,799	5,60,416	9,24,273	7,82,358	7,12,222	6,08,227	10,53,034	8,83,959	6.7	2.9	2.3	6.6	8.6	8.5	13.9	13
2. Mining & Quarrying	89,447	69,310	86,182	1,12,849	98,202	80,476	97,355	1,13,290	1,04,945	75,826	92,789	1,19,543	9.8	16.1	13	0.4	6.9	-5.8	-4.7	5.5
3. Manufacturing	5,83,784	6,33,546	6,20,420	7,08,858	6,64,844	6,92,530	6,73,890	7,35,502	6,94,993	6,87,906	6,64,294	7,28,394	13.9	9.3	8.6	3.8	4.5	-0.7	-1.4	-1
4. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & other Utility Services	1,06,824	1,07,304	1,03,950	1,07,023	1,13,836	1,18,456	1,13,804	1,10,316	1,24,751	1,22,547	1,15,188	1,24,030	6.6	10.4	9.5	3.1	9.6	3.5	1.2	12.4
5. Construction	2,87,451	2,80,664	3,05,759	3,24,057	3,24,955	3,14,756	3,45,528	3,59,041	3,50,920	3,25,815	3,49,232	3,58,928	13	12.1	13	10.8	8	3.5	1.1	-0.03
6. Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting	6,72,181	6,61,102	6,94,315	7,85,108	7,58,987	7,44,890	7,78,223	8,60,520	8,06,915	7,83,108	8,21,438	9,05,193	12.9	12.7	12.1	9.6	6.3	5.1	5.6	5.2
7.  Financial,  Real Estate  &  Professional  Services	8,67,582	9,44,159	6,96,275	6,98,542	9,74,229	10,68,600	7,85,893	7,93,409	10,56,866	11,38,695	8,18,382	8,28,581	12.3	13.2	12.9	13.6	8.5	6.6	4.1	4.4
8.  Public Administration, Defence  and Other Services	4,92,027	5,44,308	5,73,664	5,59,522	5,65,871	6,23,661	6,49,806	6,56,245	6,37,682	7,23,713	7,60,995	7,64,128	15	14.6	13.3	17.3	12.7	16	17.1	16.4
GVA  at  Basic Prices	37,13,978	37,85,096	39,84,050	40,29,998	41,56,723	42,03,786	43,68,772	44,10,682	44,89,292	44,65,838	46,75,351	47,12,757	11.9	11.1	9.7	9.4	8	6.2	7	6.8

STATEMENT 7: Quarterly Estimates of Expenditures on GDP for 2019-20 (at 2011-12 prices)

STATEMENT 8: Quarterly Estimates of Expenditures on GDP for 2019-20 (at Current Prices)

 (₹ crore)

Data Source : Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation